Everyday Murders in Mexico Fall Over a Third In President Sheinbaum, As per Government Statistics

The typical count of daily murders each month in Mexico has dropped by thirty-seven percent since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, per new government data. Nevertheless, security experts have advised that murder figures could fail to point to better national security.

Notable Reduction in Daily Figures

There was an average of nearly 55 homicides a day in last November compared with almost 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum assumed the presidency in September of last year. This information was provided by the chief of the country’s national public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The result in murders that have been recorded in these months is remarkably significant,” Claudia Sheinbaum said, adding that the previous month the smallest figure of murders were registered for any single November in the last decade.

Historical Context and Government Strategy

Fierce organized crime rivalries, combined with the government’s highly military campaigns to combat the trafficking organizations, have caused Mexico’s homicide rate soar in the past few years. The figure hit a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, per the country’s national statistics office.

That resulted in Mexico a homicide rate over four times greater than the United States. However, killings have been on the decrease, falling to 33,550 last year. Claudia Sheinbaum has credited her public safety strategy for an apparently more pronounced reduction in homicides this year.

At a press conference in August, the head of state declared: “We have a strategy, we have oversight of the plan, and there is detailed monitoring municipality by municipality in certain cases. The plan is effective. And we have to keep working at it every day.”

The central pillars of Sheinbaum’s security strategy encompass:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Advancing information gathering and investigation capabilities.
• Greater collaboration between government agencies.

Expert Warnings and Data Limitations

But, public safety experts cautioned that focusing solely on murder data to assess the situation of pacification was flawed. This is particularly true given the uptick in different crimes such as forced disappearances.

“This would be positive information if this were a reduction, but I think we can’t just focus on the homicide numbers and conclude: ‘Alright, good,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's organised crime. “I would be guardedly hopeful.”

Per the policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, murders overall fell by over 20% in the first 10 months of the current year compared with the same period last year. Yet, disappearances have gone up by 15% and in certain regions have surged by up to 200%.

“Data on murders is no longer reliable for gauging the context of insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and investigators who lack the ability or the desire to correctly identify and classify bodies. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the capability to hide violence through abductions.”

Vargas noted that using month-to-month means of everyday killings was additionally concerning because it may mask days when there were notably high levels of killings.

“Employing the per-day mean makes high peaks of violent crime invisible,” he concluded.

Detentions and Seizures as Metrics of Progress

Where the administration can point to the success of its safety plan is on arrests and seizures. Close to 40,000 suspects were apprehended between last October and November 2025 for major offenses, according to government figures. More than 20,000 firearms were seized and 311 tons of narcotics seized.

“Donald Trump cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because in reality she is doing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, many thousands of seizures, and all the tactical weakening of criminal groups. It’s highly politically advantageous,” commented Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Societal Frustration

But despite these actions, Mexico is still beset by extreme violence, with a number of states in the midst of cartel-driven conflict. Recently there was a notable assassination of a popular mayor in the region of Michoacan, among 10 mayors assassinated in the last year.

A short time later, thousands of young people took to the streets in the capital and throughout the nation to express their anger at corruption and narco-violence.

“The government shares [data] in a way to build a picture of improvement. From a political standpoint it’s very effective, socially it’s extremely questionable,” Vargas remarked.